Polygenic Score (PGS) ID: PGS020005

Predicted Trait
Reported Trait Atrial fibrillation
Mapped Trait(s) atrial fibrillation (MONDO_0004981)
Released in PGS Catalog: Oct. 23, 2026
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Terms and Licenses
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Score Details

Score Construction
PGS Name eMERGE_AF_PRS
Development Method
Name Genome-wide significant variants
Parameters Variants are independent because of conditional analysis and locus definition, not pruning. A significance threshold of P<5e-8 was used for variant selection. Weights are per-allele log(OR) for the risk-increasing allele.
Variants
Original Genome Build GRCh38
Number of Variants 166
Effect Weight Type beta
PGS Source
PGS Catalog Publication (PGP) ID PGP000864
Citation (link to publication) Lennon NJ et al. Nat Med (2024)
Ancestry Distribution
Source of Variant
Associations (GWAS)
European: 96.9%
East Asian: 2.3%
African: 0.6%
Hispanic or Latin American: 0.3%
1,619,026 individuals (100%)
PGS Evaluation
African: 40%
Hispanic or Latin American: 20%
Additional Asian Ancestries: 20%
European: 20%
5 Sample Sets

Development Samples

Source of Variant Associations (GWAS)
Study Identifiers Sample Numbers Sample Ancestry Cohort(s)
GWAS Catalog: GCST006061
Europe PMC: 29892015
 8,967 individuals African American or Afro-Caribbean NR
GWAS Catalog: GCST006061
Europe PMC: 29892015
 36,792 individuals East Asian
(Japanese)		 NR
GWAS Catalog: GCST006414
Europe PMC: 30061737
 1,030,836 individuals European NR
GWAS Catalog: GCST006061
Europe PMC: 29892015
 537,409 individuals European NR
GWAS Catalog: GCST006061
Europe PMC: 29892015
 5,022 individuals Hispanic or Latin American NR

Performance Metrics

Disclaimer: The performance metrics are displayed as reported by the source studies. It is important to note that metrics are not necessarily comparable with each other. For example, metrics depend on the sample characteristics (described by the PGS Catalog Sample Set [PSS] ID), phenotyping, and statistical modelling. Please refer to the source publication for additional guidance on performance.

PGS Performance
Metric ID (PPM) 		PGS Sample Set ID
(PSS) 		Performance Source Trait PGS Effect Sizes
(per SD change) 		Classification Metrics Other Metrics Covariates Included in the Model PGS Performance:
Other Relevant Information
PPM038305 PSS013914|
European Ancestry|
26,900 individuals
 PGP000864 |
Lennon NJ et al. Nat Med (2024)
 Reported Trait: Atrial fibrillation OR: 1.44 AUROC: 0.66 — Age, sex, first 4 PCs —
PPM038306 PSS013911|
African Ancestry|
2,392 individuals
 PGP000864 |
Lennon NJ et al. Nat Med (2024)
 Reported Trait: Atrial fibrillation OR: 1.29 AUROC: 0.65 — Age, sex, first 4 PCs —
PPM038307 PSS013912|
African Ancestry|
3,408 individuals
 PGP000864 |
Lennon NJ et al. Nat Med (2024)
 Reported Trait: Atrial fibrillation OR: 1.25 AUROC: 0.67 — Age, sex, first 4 PCs —
PPM038308 PSS013915|
Hispanic or Latin American Ancestry|
933 individuals
 PGP000864 |
Lennon NJ et al. Nat Med (2024)
 Reported Trait: Atrial fibrillation OR: 1.39 AUROC: 0.67 — Age, sex, first 4 PCs —
PPM038309 PSS013913|
Additional Asian Ancestries|
400 individuals
 PGP000864 |
Lennon NJ et al. Nat Med (2024)
 Reported Trait: Atrial fibrillation OR: 1.64 AUROC: 0.68 — Age, sex, first 4 PCs —

Evaluated Samples

PGS Sample Set ID
(PSS) 		Phenotype Definitions and Methods Participant Follow-up Time Sample Numbers Age of Study Participants Sample Ancestry Additional Ancestry Description Cohort(s) Additional Sample/Cohort Information
PSS013911 — —
[
  • 338 cases
  • , 2,054 controls
]
 — African unspecified — eMERGE —
PSS013912 — —
[
  • 502 cases
  • , 2,906 controls
]
 — African unspecified — eMERGE —
PSS013913 — —
[
  • 45 cases
  • , 355 controls
]
 — Asian unspecified — eMERGE —
PSS013914 — —
[
  • 8,613 cases
  • , 18,287 controls
]
 — European — eMERGE —
PSS013915 — —
[
  • 132 cases
  • , 801 controls
]
 — Hispanic or Latin American — eMERGE —