Polygenic Score (PGS) ID: PGS005168

Predicted Trait
Reported Trait Atrial fibrillation
Mapped Trait(s) atrial fibrillation (MONDO_0004981)
Released in PGS Catalog: March 17, 2025
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Terms and Licenses
PGS obtained from the Catalog should be cited appropriately, and used in accordance with any licensing restrictions set by the authors. See EBI Terms of Use (https://www.ebi.ac.uk/about/terms-of-use/) for additional details.

Score Details

Score Construction
PGS Name PRSAF
Development Method
Name PRS-CS
Parameters LD reference panel = 1000 Genomes Europeans
Variants
Original Genome Build hg38
Number of Variants 382,963
Effect Weight Type beta
PGS Source
PGS Catalog Publication (PGP) ID PGP000712
Citation (link to publication) Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
Ancestry Distribution
Source of Variant
Associations (GWAS)
European: 80.5%
East Asian: 17.1%
African: 1.3%
Hispanic or Latin American: 1.1%
South Asian: 0.07%
870,591 individuals (100%)
PGS Evaluation
European: 41.7%
African: 16.7%
East Asian: 16.7%
South Asian: 16.7%
Hispanic or Latin American: 8.3%
12 Sample Sets

Development Samples

Source of Variant Associations (GWAS)
Study Identifiers Sample Numbers Sample Ancestry Cohort(s)
Europe PMC: 40050429
[
  • 1,782 cases
  • , 9,356 controls
]
 African American or Afro-Caribbean 6 cohorts
  • ARIC
  • ,BioMe
  • ,Broad CVDi
  • ,CHS
  • ,ENGAGE_AF-TIMI_48
  • ,MESA
Europe PMC: 40050429
[
  • 11,350 cases
  • , 137,515 controls
]
 East Asian BBJ, ENGAGE_AF-TIMI_48, MESA
Europe PMC: 40050429
[
  • 1,774 cases
  • , 7,665 controls
]
 Hispanic or Latin American BioMe, Broad CVDi, ENGAGE_AF-TIMI_48, MESA, SPHFC
Europe PMC: 40050429
[
  • 218 cases
  • , 413 controls
]
 South Asian ENGAGE_AF-TIMI_48
Europe PMC: 40050429
[
  • 115,154 cases
  • , 576,364 controls
]
 European 33 cohorts
  • AGES
  • ,ARIC
  • ,BioMe
  • ,Broad CVDi
  • ,CCAF
  • ,CHB
  • ,CHS
  • ,EGCUT
  • ,ENGAGE_AF-TIMI_48
  • ,FHS
  • ,FinnGen
  • ,GAPP
  • ,GS:SFHS
  • ,HRS
  • ,LURIC
  • ,MESA
  • ,MGI
  • ,MyCode
  • ,Other
  • ,PHB
  • ,PIVUS
  • ,PREVEND
  • ,PROSPER
  • ,RS
  • ,SHIP
  • ,SOLID-TIMI_52
  • ,SiGN
  • ,TwinGene
  • ,ULSAM
  • ,Vanderbilt
  • ,WGHS
  • ,WTCCC
  • ,deCODE

Performance Metrics

Disclaimer: The performance metrics are displayed as reported by the source studies. It is important to note that metrics are not necessarily comparable with each other. For example, metrics depend on the sample characteristics (described by the PGS Catalog Sample Set [PSS] ID), phenotyping, and statistical modelling. Please refer to the source publication for additional guidance on performance.

PGS Performance
Metric ID (PPM) 		PGS Sample Set ID
(PSS) 		Performance Source Trait PGS Effect Sizes
(per SD change) 		Classification Metrics Other Metrics Covariates Included in the Model PGS Performance:
Other Relevant Information
PPM022406 PSS011945|
European Ancestry|
52,757 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Atrial fibrillation HR: 1.6663
β: 0.5106 (0.0206)		 C-index: 0.8718 [0.8657, 0.878] — age, age^2, sex, geno_array, CHARGE-AF —
PPM022407 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Atrial fibrillation HR: 1.6005
β: 0.4703 (0.0096)		 C-index: 0.7895 [0.7855, 0.7936] — age, age^2, sex, geno_array, CHARGE-AF —
PPM022408 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Heart Failure β: 0.173 (0.0094) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022409 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Dilated cardiomyopathy β: 0.2 (0.0349) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022410 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Atrial fibrillation or flutter β: 0.5568 (0.0068) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022411 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Supraventricular arrhythmia β: 0.3159 (0.0152) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022412 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Ventricular arrhythmia β: 0.112 (0.015) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022413 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Ventricular arrhythmia Sudden cardiac death β: 0.0748 (0.0214) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022414 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Bradyarrhythmia β: 0.0937 (0.0084) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022415 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Bradyarrhythmia AV block or distal conduction disease β: 0.0628 (0.0099) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022416 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Bradyarrhythmia Pacemaker β: 0.1296 (0.0116) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022417 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Aortic valve disease β: 0.0619 (0.0123) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022418 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Mitral valve disease β: 0.1804 (0.0113) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022419 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Tricuspid valve disease β: 0.2134 (0.0155) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022420 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Peripheral vascular disease β: 0.0608 (0.0122) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022421 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Venous thromboembolism β: 0.0395 (0.008) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022422 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Ischemic stroke β: 0.1436 (0.0147) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022423 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Stroke β: 0.0901 (0.0101) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022424 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Coronary Artery Disease β: 0.0373 (0.0069) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022425 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Myocardial Infarction β: 0.0449 (0.0083) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022427 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Hypertension β: 0.0474 (0.0035) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022428 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Diabetes Type 2 β: 0.0278 (0.0062) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022429 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Hyperthyroidism β: 0.0746 (0.0137) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022430 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Hypothyroidism β: 0.0341 (0.0063) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022431 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Gout β: 0.0457 (0.0103) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022432 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Asthma β: 0.0172 (0.0046) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022433 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Diverticular disease β: 0.0286 (0.0051) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022434 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Chronic kidney disease β: 0.0701 (0.009) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022435 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Osteoarthritis β: 0.02 (0.004) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022436 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Sleep apnea β: 0.0579 (0.0116) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022437 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Pneumonia β: 0.0447 (0.0067) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022438 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Height β: 0.2656 (0.0101) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022440 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Body mass index β: 0.0928 (0.0076) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022426 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Hypercholesterolemia β: 0.0302 (0.0041) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022439 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Weight β: 0.5037 (0.0225) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022441 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Diastolic blood pressure β: 0.0823 (0.016) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022442 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: High density lipoprotein β: -0.0041 (0.0006) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022443 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Low density lipoprotein β: -0.0103 (0.0014) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022444 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Triglycerides β: -0.0064 (0.0016) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022445 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: P-wave duration β: -0.4988 (0.0918) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022446 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: QRS-duration β: -0.3295 (0.0736) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022447 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Left ventricular end-diastolic volume β: 0.5077 (0.1366) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022448 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Left ventricular end-systolic volume β: 0.4055 (0.0814) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022449 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Left ventricular ejection fraction β: -0.0016 (0.0003) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM022450 PSS011946|
European Ancestry|
246,683 individuals
 PGP000712 |
Roselli C et al. Nat Genet (2025)
 Reported Trait: Descending Aorta Diameter β: 0.0046 (0.001) — — age, sex, genotyping array, PCs 1-5 —
PPM030619 PSS012206|
Hispanic or Latin American Ancestry|
40,219 individuals
 PGP000788 |
Haydarlou P et al. Nat Commun (2026)
|Ext.		 Reported Trait: Atrial Fibrillation OR: 1.34
β: 0.29		 — R²: 0.024 age, sex and first 20 principal components Beta = log(OR)
PPM030622 PSS012207|
African Ancestry|
44,692 individuals
 PGP000788 |
Haydarlou P et al. Nat Commun (2026)
|Ext.		 Reported Trait: Atrial Fibrillation OR: 1.21
β: 0.189		 — R²: 0.008 age, sex and first 20 principal components Beta = log(OR)
PPM030625 PSS012208|
South Asian Ancestry|
3,806 individuals
 PGP000788 |
Haydarlou P et al. Nat Commun (2026)
|Ext.		 Reported Trait: Atrial Fibrillation OR: 1.28
β: 0.247		 — R²: 0.014 age, sex and first 20 principal components Beta = log(OR)
PPM030628 PSS012209|
East Asian Ancestry|
6,832 individuals
 PGP000788 |
Haydarlou P et al. Nat Commun (2026)
|Ext.		 Reported Trait: Atrial Fibrillation OR: 1.64
β: 0.492		 — R²: 0.061 age, sex and first 20 principal components Beta = log(OR)
PPM030631 PSS012210|
East Asian Ancestry|
45,404 individuals
 PGP000788 |
Haydarlou P et al. Nat Commun (2026)
|Ext.		 Reported Trait: Atrial Fibrillation OR: 2.0
β: 0.692		 — R²: 0.125 age, sex and first 20 principal components Beta = log(OR)
PPM030634 PSS012211|
European Ancestry|
15,191 individuals
 PGP000788 |
Haydarlou P et al. Nat Commun (2026)
|Ext.		 Reported Trait: Atrial Fibrillation OR: 1.81
β: 0.593		 — R²: 0.083 age, sex and first 20 principal components Beta = log(OR)
PPM030638 PSS012212|
European Ancestry|
5,656 individuals
 PGP000788 |
Haydarlou P et al. Nat Commun (2026)
|Ext.		 Reported Trait: Atrial Fibrillation OR: 1.43
β: 0.356		 — R²: 0.037 age, sex and first 6 principal components Beta = log(OR)
PPM030640 PSS012213|
African Ancestry|
7,382 individuals
 PGP000788 |
Haydarlou P et al. Nat Commun (2026)
|Ext.		 Reported Trait: Atrial Fibrillation OR: 1.31
β: 0.271		 — R²: 0.015 age, sex and first 20 principal components Beta = log(OR)
PPM030642 PSS012205|
South Asian Ancestry|
4,439 individuals
 PGP000788 |
Haydarlou P et al. Nat Commun (2026)
|Ext.		 Reported Trait: Atrial Fibrillation OR: 1.44
β: 0.364		 — R²: 0.033 age, sex and first 20 principal components Beta = log(OR)
PPM030616 PSS012204|
European Ancestry|
124,367 individuals
 PGP000788 |
Haydarlou P et al. Nat Commun (2026)
|Ext.		 Reported Trait: Atrial Fibrillation OR: 1.59
β: 0.463		 — R²: 0.059 age, sex and first 20 principal components Beta = log(OR)

Evaluated Samples

PGS Sample Set ID
(PSS) 		Phenotype Definitions and Methods Participant Follow-up Time Sample Numbers Age of Study Participants Sample Ancestry Additional Ancestry Description Cohort(s) Additional Sample/Cohort Information
PSS012213 I48, I48.0, I48.1, I48.2, I48.3, I48.4, I48.9, 427.3. —
[
  • 259 cases
  • , 7,123 controls
]
 — African unspecified — UKB —
PSS011945 — —
[
  • 2,474 cases
  • , 50,283 controls
]
 — European — HUNT —
PSS011946 — —
[
  • 10,416 cases
  • , 236,267 controls
]
 — European — UKB —
PSS012204 OMOP.Ids: 313217 and 314665 —
[
  • 11,087 cases
  • , 113,280 controls
]
 — European — AllofUs —
PSS012205 I48, I48.0, I48.1, I48.2, I48.3, I48.4, I48.9, 427.3. —
[
  • 204 cases
  • , 4,235 controls
]
 — South Asian — UKB —
PSS012206 OMOP.Ids: 313217 and 314665 —
[
  • 1,449 cases
  • , 38,770 controls
]
 — Hispanic or Latin American — AllofUs —
PSS012207 OMOP.Ids: 313217 and 314665 —
[
  • 2,112 cases
  • , 42,580 controls
]
 — African American or Afro-Caribbean — AllofUs —
PSS012208 OMOP.Ids: 313217 and 314665 —
[
  • 90 cases
  • , 3,716 controls
]
 — South Asian — AllofUs —
PSS012209 OMOP.Ids: 313217 and 314665 —
[
  • 198 cases
  • , 6,634 controls
]
 — East Asian — AllofUs —
PSS012210 physician's diagnosis or electrocardiogram records —
[
  • 3,944 cases
  • , 41,460 controls
]
 — East Asian
(Japanese)		 — BBJ Biobank Japan 2nd cohort
PSS012211 I48, I48.0, I48.1, I48.2, I48.3, I48.4, I48.9, 427.3. —
[
  • 341 cases
  • , 14,850 controls
]
 — European
(Norwegian)		 — HUNT —
PSS012212 - —
[
  • 969 cases
  • , 4,687 controls
]
 — European
(Danish)		 — LOOP —